The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season commenced on June 1 and will continue until November 30. Forecasts from various institutions suggest above-average activity in the coming months. Allianz Commercial’s catastrophe risk team has evaluated potential developments for this year, reviewed significant events from last year, and examined the impact of climate change on hurricane behavior.
Forecasts from six institutions indicate a slightly above-average season. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are warmer than usual, despite not being as warm as last year. Neutral El Niño or La Niña conditions are expected during summer and fall, which often lead to increased storm activity in the Atlantic. Factors such as weak wind shear and an active West African Monsoon may also promote tropical cyclone formation.
AccuWeather, Colorado State University (CSU), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), North Carolina State University (NCSU), Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), and the UK Met Office predict between 12 to 19 tropical storms, six to 10 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes for this season. There is uncertainty regarding which El Niño phase will dominate during peak hurricane season.
ENSO influences weather patterns globally through fluctuations in sea surface temperature and air pressure across the Pacific Ocean. The El Niño phase involves warmer SST in the equatorial Pacific, enhancing hurricane activity there but suppressing it in the Atlantic basin. Conversely, La Niña features colder SST that boosts Atlantic hurricane activity while reducing it in the Pacific.
Climate change is intensifying hurricanes, making them wetter and slower-moving while causing poleward migration of maximum intensity latitude. This challenges traditional models by underestimating rare high-impact events like Hurricane Helene in 2024. Keerthy Mohandas from Allianz Commercial noted: “Climate-induced volatility is here —evident in changing hurricane behavior — and it is reshaping how we assess risk.”
The 2024 season began quickly with Hurricane Beryl becoming an early Category 5 hurricane on July 2—a record-breaking event that shifted seasonal dynamics. An unusual pause occurred between August and September before four more major hurricanes struck, including Helene and Milton which caused significant damage to southeastern US regions.
Hurricane Helene brought extreme winds, rainfall, coastal inundation to Florida's Big Bend area resulting in devastating flooding across southern Appalachians with hundreds of fatalities reported alongside billions worth property damage incurred throughout affected areas only weeks prior Milton made landfall at Sarasota County rapidly intensifying into category three status generating widespread destruction amid central southern Floridian locales exacerbated further by multiple tornado occurrences spawned within vicinity thereof accordingly necessitating immediate attention towards requisite countermeasures designed effectively mitigate ongoing adverse impacts posed ensuing similar instances arise future occasions warranting comprehensive evaluation preventative strategies implementation proactively safeguarding vulnerable communities nationwide ultimately preserving lives assets alike amidst prevailing uncertainties inherent atmospheric phenomena perpetuating current climatological 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“Climate-induced volatility is here —evident in changing hurricane behavior —and it is reshaping how we assess risk,” says Keerthy Mohandas Catastrophe Risk Research Analyst Allianz Commercial