ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads experienced a slight decline of 1.2% month-on-month in May, following a revised decrease of 0.3% in April. In trend terms, the series saw a reduction of 0.6% month-on-month.
The job ads index is now at its lowest since March 2021 but has stayed within a narrow range of 114 to 117 since mid-2024. ANZ Economist Aaron Luk commented on this development: "Although the ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads series has remained in a tight range of 114–117 over the last year, the May result is in the bottom of that range and marks the lowest level of job ads since March 2021."
Luk noted mixed signals regarding labor demand, mentioning that "ANZ Job Ads per unemployed person has been gradually trending downwards since November last year." He added that while employment rose by 89,000 in April, recent labor force survey data has shown volatility. Hours worked remained flat in April and declined in February and March.
Despite these fluctuations, Luk observed that "the labour market still remains tight, with robust employment growth and a low unemployment rate." He maintained an expectation for cash rate cuts by 25 basis points in August and again early next year due to overall economic resilience.
Indeed Senior Economist Callam Pickering highlighted regional differences: "In May, Job Ads rose in New South Wales and Victoria, but that was more than offset by weakness across the rest of the country." He pointed out Queensland as a significant drag on job creation this year compared to its stronger performance last year.
Pickering also discussed sector-specific trends: "Job Ads in education rose throughout May, but no sector has experienced a larger decline over the past year," citing sharp falls particularly in Victoria, Tasmania, and the Australian Capital Territory. Meanwhile, software development job ads reached their highest level since October 2023. However, management roles faced challenges with declines impacting growth.