ANZ's latest Agri InFocus report reveals significant regional variations in Australia's 2024/25 winter crop production, despite a large national harvest. The total winter crop output reached 59.8 million tonnes, marking a 26% increase from the previous season and the third-largest on record.
Michael Whitehead, ANZ Executive Director of Food, Beverage and Agriculture Business Insights, noted that while the national result is impressive, it conceals notable differences across regions. "It was a strong headline result, but the underlying regional contrasts point to a broader shift in how the industry is evolving," he stated.
Whitehead emphasized that regional cropping performance is diverging and strategic decision-making is now crucial. He said, "Looking ahead, success will depend on adaptability over scope." He also mentioned that growers are refining their strategies by adjusting crop choices based on logistics, conditions, and global demand.
New South Wales and Western Australia were key contributors to the recovery with outputs of 20.3 million tonnes and 23 million tonnes respectively due to favorable rainfall and growing conditions. Queensland's production more than doubled to 3.8 million tonnes with increased chickpea plantings supported by early moisture.
In contrast, Victoria experienced a 31% decline in its crop while South Australia saw a 40% decrease due to spring frosts and dry spells. Wheat production rose by 31% reaching 34.1 million tonnes with strong yields in key areas; barley increased by 13%, whereas canola fell by 8%, particularly affecting southern crops.
The report highlights pulses as a major growth area with national production rising by 34% to reach 4.7 million tonnes. Chickpea production surged by 171% driven by rising Indian demand while lentils increased by 7%, aided by strong plantings in South Australia and western Victoria.
As for the upcoming season (2025/26), there is an emerging two-speed sowing pattern where northern growers are moving early while those in southern regions remain cautious—opting for lower-risk cereals or reducing canola planting areas.
Whitehead remarked on the importance of adaptability: “In today’s environment, the ability to adjust plans in real time is becoming essential for cropping businesses.” He added that success increasingly relies on effectively responding to climate changes rather than just operational scale leading to this varied sowing pace across Australia.
Further insights are available in ANZ’s Agri InFocus Commodity Insights report for winter edition of 2025.