Local factors are influencing cattle prices across Australia, as the southern region experiences destocking while the north focuses on restocking. ANZ's latest Agri InFocus report highlights this dynamic within the Australian cattle industry.
Despite recent attention on tariffs in the United States and global trade issues, their impact on Australian exports is yet to be fully realized. Instead, a significant factor affecting saleyards is the movement of cattle from south to north due to dry conditions in the south and recovery efforts following northern floods.
Madeleine Swan, ANZ Director of Agribusiness Research, describes this situation as "a tale of two markets." She notes that although southern producers face challenges from dry weather, they benefit from strong demand in the north. "Cattle prices remain strong and continue to grow year on year," she states. The outlook for beef exports remains positive despite potential tariff impacts.
The report indicates a substantial increase in restocker steers sent to market—more than double compared to last year—while restocker heifers rose by 42 percent and processor cows by 40 percent. Increases in market activity have been noted recently with steers up 63 percent and heifers up 106 percent. Despite this rise, prices have only slightly dipped due to demand from northern Australia.
Feed shortages in the south have caused a slight decline in heavy and feeder steer numbers compared to last year. Meanwhile, heavy steer prices fell slightly in the north due to processors reaching capacity rather than diminished demand. In contrast, southern pasture shortages led to higher heavy cattle prices.
Globally, beef supply faces pressure amid ongoing tariff negotiations affecting Australian exports. Ms Swan mentions that "exports continue to grow strongly" with a notable 15 percent increase in shipments to the United States during April alone. She adds that "the 10 per cent tariffs across Australian goods is unlikely" to harm global exports significantly but highlights consumer disposable income as crucial for future growth.
Further insights are available in ANZ's Agri InFocus Commodity Insights report for winter 2025.
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