The International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded its 2025 Article IV Consultation with France, highlighting the country's economic resilience amidst ongoing uncertainty. An IMF mission led by Manuela Goretti conducted discussions from May 12 to May 22, 2025, and released a statement emphasizing several key areas for economic focus.
"The French economy has demonstrated resilience despite high uncertainty," the statement noted, mentioning progress in disinflation and a robust labor market. However, it also pointed out the challenges posed by rising public debt and domestic and external headwinds. The IMF welcomed France's commitment to reducing its deficit below 3 percent of GDP by 2029 but stressed the need for structural reforms to support sustainable growth.
The economic outlook remains clouded by uncertainties. Real GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.6 percent in 2025 before reaching 1 percent in 2026. Factors such as weak confidence, fiscal tightening, and external trade tensions are expected to dampen private consumption and investment.
Fiscal policy was another focus area. The authorities aim to bring the deficit below 3 percent of GDP by implementing a Medium-term Fiscal Structural Plan (MTFSP). The IMF recommends a frontloaded structural fiscal effort starting in 2026 to ensure debt sustainability.
Regarding macrostructural policies, the IMF highlighted the importance of raising productivity growth through innovation and access to capital. France's potential as a European hub for Artificial Intelligence could drive technological development and support economic growth.
In financial sector assessments, France's banking sector showed resilience against recent shocks due to prudent lending standards and strong precautionary buffers. The IMF advised maintaining robust financial oversight while adapting policies to an evolving financial landscape.
Overall, while acknowledging France's efforts in various domains, the IMF emphasized that continued reform efforts are crucial for maintaining economic stability and fostering growth amid global uncertainties.