Tunisia's economy is forecasted to grow by 1.9 percent in 2025, an increase from the 1.4 percent growth in 2024. This improvement is attributed to better rainfall and gradual stabilization across key sectors, according to the World Bank's latest economic update for Tunisia titled "Better connectivity to grow." The report highlights resilience in tourism and agriculture as contributing factors to the recovery, despite ongoing challenges in manufacturing.
The World Bank projects that growth will stabilize around 1.6–1.7 percent between 2026 and 2027. While global trade uncertainties and limited external financing present potential challenges, a stronger reform momentum and reduced global trade uncertainty could enhance Tunisia’s medium-term outlook.
Inflation has been decreasing since early 2025, reaching 5.6 percent in April—the lowest level since 2021—approaching pre-pandemic averages. Food inflation remains at 7.3 percent due to seasonal and supply-side pressures. In response, the Central Bank of Tunisia lowered its key interest rate to 7.5 percent, marking its first rate cut in over two years.
Tunisia’s current account deficit decreased to 1.7 percent of GDP in 2024, aided by improved terms of trade and robust tourism receipts. However, increased energy imports and a slowdown in export volumes widened the trade deficit in early 2025, posing challenges to the external balance. On the fiscal side, the deficit fell to 5.8 percent of GDP in 2024 due to controlled public spending and stable subsidy levels.
The report emphasizes Tunisia's trade connectivity as having significant economic potential through improvements in its port system. New estimates from the World Bank suggest that enhancing port connectivity and reducing dwell times could boost GDP by four to five percent within three to four years. Achieving regional peers' levels of port connectivity through targeted infrastructure improvements could result in gains of up to 3.5 percent of GDP, while addressing institutional bottlenecks could yield additional gains exceeding one percent.
"Tunisia continues to show resilience amid a complex global and domestic environment," said Alexandre Arrobbio, World Bank Country Manager for Tunisia. "Better connectivity, especially through improved port logistics, can be a powerful engine for job creation and economic growth."
In the long term, positioning Tunisia as a trans-shipment hub could bring even larger benefits ranging from 11–14 percent of GDP. The report recommends combining infrastructure upgrades—such as new terminals, equipment modernization, and improved port access—with institutional reforms like revised port tariffs, digital systems modernization, and enhanced railway-port connectivity.