ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads reported a 0.5% increase in April, following a 0.4% rise in March. The trend indicates a slight month-on-month growth of 0.1%. Despite an annual decline of 5.1%, the job ads have remained within a stable range since June 2024.
"The ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads series has hovered around the 115 mark since mid-2024 and continues to point to a resilient labour market," stated ANZ Economist Aaron Luk. He noted that the unemployment rate has been stable, ranging between 3.9% and 4.2% over the past year.
Luk also mentioned that "the April RBA bulletin highlighted the significance of the ANZ-Indeed Job Ads series, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) preferencing the use of the series when forecasting the unemployment rate." Despite tight labor conditions, he suggested that "the RBA is likely to cut the cash rate at its May meeting due to the uncertain global backdrop."
Callam Pickering, Indeed Senior Economist, observed mixed regional growth in job ads for April, with declines in New South Wales offset by gains in other states like South Australia and Western Australia. Queensland's performance lagged this year compared to last year's strong growth.
Pickering added, "Job Ads in retail rose further in April, boosted by Easter, with the industry one of the strongest performers this year." However, he noted decreases in education and food preparation & service sectors.
The report suggests an expected peak unemployment rate of 4.4%, with revised GDP growth forecasts now at 2.0% for 2025 due to anticipated lower economic activity impacting labor demand.