On May 1, voters across 23 councils in England will head to the polls for the first local elections since the general election last July. Additionally, a parliamentary by-election will occur in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency. These local elections represent a significant moment for new political leadership in the UK.
Professor Jane Green emphasizes the importance of these elections as a crucial test for the new Conservative Leader, Kemi Badenoch, the Labour government, and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. She anticipates the Conservatives may suffer significant losses, urging them to reflect on how to regain public support.
"These elections mark the first test since the general election for new Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch, the new Labour government, and Nigel Farage wants to show Reform UK are on the rise and poised for a bigger breakthrough," stated Professor Green. She warns, "Local election results are tricky to interpret and we, and politicians, can learn the wrong lessons from this week’s elections."
Professor Green highlights how these elections mainly reflect a continuation of last year's trends, particularly with regards to Conservative losses and potential gains for Reform UK. She warns that the absence of significant gains for Labour should be more concerning for the governing party than any losses. "It will be the absence of gains for Labour, rather than losses, that should cause the governing party most cause for concern," she noted.
The elections are expected to reveal ongoing fractures within the party system, similar to patterns seen in 2024. Green underscores, "It’s possible that the Conservatives will now under-perform in locals too because their vote is now split on the right." She also notes that Labour could underperform due to competition from smaller parties like the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, who typically fare better in local elections.
A significant focus of the elections is the anticipated success of Reform UK. Nigel Farage is positioned to capitalize on these local elections, although Professor Green cautions against overestimating the impact. "Nigel Farage may claim the local election results show they’re on the march, perhaps even on a road towards Number 10, but his obstacles shouldn’t be underestimated," she said. Reform UK’s potential success in attracting votes could indeed signal significant, yet challenging, future political developments.
To gain further insights, the public can watch Jane's ITV News series "Local Election Matters" on YouTube and explore her research at the Nuffield Politics Research Centre.