On April 23, 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a concluding statement after its Article IV mission to Uzbekistan. According to the IMF, the country displayed strong economic performance with a real GDP growth of 6.5 percent in 2024, underpinned by strong domestic demand. Inflation remains high at 10.3 percent year-on-year as of March 2025, while the consolidated government deficit decreased to 3.2 percent of GDP.
The IMF noted, "The economy has continued to perform strongly," although external uncertainties have increased due to announced global tariff increases. The economy's growth is projected to remain close to 6 percent through 2025 and 2026, buoyed by private consumption, investment, and structural reforms. The current account deficit is expected to stabilize at 5 percent of GDP in 2025.
Key external risks to the country's economic outlook include trade policy shocks, volatility in commodity prices, and reduced external financing. Domestically, threats could arise from higher-than-expected fiscal deficits and risks linked to state-owned entities.
The IMF praises the Uzbekistan government for adhering to a medium-term fiscal target and managing the external borrowing limit. "Adhering to the external borrowing limit of US $5.5 billion in 2025," the IMF stated, is crucial to maintaining fiscal discipline and credibility.
Indications are that monetary policy should remain tight until inflation aligns closer to a 5 percent target. The Central Bank of Uzbekistan's recent policy rate hike addresses inflation pressures, and further tightening may be necessary if inflation persists. The IMF urges, "The Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) should keep monetary policy tight until inflation approaches its 5 percent target."
The statement calls for continued financial sector reforms, including the advancement and privatization of state-owned commercial banks. Reform focuses also extend to governance, labor, and climate considerations, with improvements reported in governance indicators. Pending legislative matters include new laws aimed at tackling corruption and enhancing transparency.
The IMF mission acknowledged the Uzbek authorities, stakeholders, and private sector representatives for their cooperation during the mission.