The World Trade Organization (WTO) has published its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, indicating a predicted decline in the volume of global merchandise trade by 0.2% in 2025 compared to a "low tariff" baseline scenario. This decline is attributed to higher tariffs, and trade could further contract to -1.5% if conditions worsen.
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the Director-General of the WTO, expressed her concerns regarding trade policy uncertainty and the ongoing US-China tensions. She stated, "The recent de-escalation of tariff tensions has temporarily relieved some of the pressure on global trade. However, the enduring uncertainty threatens to act as a brake on global growth."
WTO economists had initially projected growth for world trade in 2025 and 2026, but the introduction of new tariffs has led to revised forecasts. Chief Economist Ralph Ossa noted, "Our simulations show that trade policy uncertainty has a significant dampening effect on trade flows, reducing exports and weakening economic activity."
The forecast underlines several risks, particularly the potential reactivation of suspended “reciprocal tariffs” by the United States, which could further reduce global trade volumes. On a regional level, North America is expected to experience declines in both exports and imports in 2025, whereas Asia and Europe may register modest growth. The disruption in US-China trade is expected to cause trade diversions, affecting various markets.
In terms of services, which account for a significant share of global trade, growth is projected to be slower than expected. Europe's services exports are anticipated to grow by 5.0% in 2025, with other regions showing varying rates of growth or decline.
The full report and detailed trade statistics are accessible on the WTO Stats portal, offering comprehensive data and insights into global trade trends.