An international team of researchers has presented a new framework to enhance predictions of animal movements in response to rapidly changing environmental conditions. The research, led by Professor Luca Börger from Swansea University, aims to address the limitations of current methodologies, which often focus on documenting existing movement patterns rather than forecasting future changes.
The study acknowledges the advancements in technology such as radiotracking and satellite tags, which have improved our ability to monitor animal movements. However, it raises concerns about the reliance on past and present data to predict future movements amidst environmental changes caused by climate change and human activities.
Professor Börger and his colleagues, including researchers Sara Gomez from the CNRS in Montpellier and Dr. Holly English from University College Dublin, underscore the necessity of refining data collection and modeling techniques to yield better predictions. This involves integrating biological mechanisms into models, focusing on first principles of animal behavior, and expanding studies to a broader range of species, especially in human-affected environments.
Sara Gomez emphasizes the need to abandon correlative approaches and adopt models suitable for dynamic systems. She calls for including a variety of species and studying their movements in diverse environments to improve predictions.
Dr. Holly English highlights the potential benefits of incorporating these predictive models into wildlife management and policy. She mentions conservation schemes, such as rewilding and translocations, as unexplored opportunities to collect data and test predictions in new environments.
Professor Börger stresses the importance of this shift towards a predictive science, which he believes is critical in the face of rapid global changes. He notes that understanding animal movements is essential as they significantly impact ecosystem processes.
The research, titled 'Understanding and Predicting Animal Movements and Distributions in the Anthropocene,' appears in the Journal of Animal Ecology. For further details, Swansea University's Lab for Animal Movement at the biosciences department can be consulted.