The United States is considering imposing tariffs on agricultural imports, including Australian beef, starting April 2, 2025. This potential development is causing concern among Australian beef exporters, who fear the impact on their market competitiveness in the US. Michael Whitehead, Executive Director of Food, Beverage and Agribusiness Insights at ANZ, commented on the uncertainty surrounding the situation: "While no formal rates or exemptions have been confirmed, the uncertainty is already affecting confidence among Australian processors and producers."
Australia is the largest beef supplier to the United States, exporting nearly 395,000 tonnes in 2024, mainly for burgers and further processing. Whitehead warned that tariffs of 8 percent or more could render Australian beef less competitive. "If the US imposes tariffs of 8 percent or more, Australian beef could become significantly less competitive – impacting export volumes, processor margins, and domestic cattle prices," he said.
In addition to the tariff issue, US beef industry groups may seek greater access to the Australian market, a prospect the Australian industry has resisted due to biosecurity concerns. "While Australia prohibits fresh US beef imports, the US has a long history of using tariff threats as leverage in trade negotiations," Whitehead noted. This ongoing trade negotiation could become a significant concern for Australian producers and policymakers.
Should US demand for Australian beef decline, cattle prices, especially for lean manufacturing beef categories, might face downward pressure. Whitehead predicted, "A tariff announcement could potentially see the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) fall by 20 to 40 cents per kilogram." This situation could lead to tighter margins, operational changes, and employment challenges for processors in Queensland and New South Wales.
In the event of reduced Australian beef exports to the US, alternative markets such as Japan, South Korea, and China might emerge as viable options. Japan currently sources 39 percent, South Korea 45 percent, and China 17 percent of their beef imports from Australia. However, competition from countries like Brazil, New Zealand, and Argentina remains strong. Whitehead concluded, "The Australian beef sector has shown resilience before, but with US trade policy evolving, maintaining diversified markets, agile supply chains, and strong biosecurity protections will be essential."