The World Trade Organization's Goods Trade Barometer has maintained a steady reading at the beginning of 2025, with an index value of 102.8. This figure suggests that global merchandise trade is above trend, although rising uncertainty in trade policy may have influenced recent activity.
The barometer acts as a leading indicator for world trade, where values over 100 indicate above-trend trade volumes. The current reading surpasses both the quarterly trade volume index and the baseline of 100. While this typically signals accelerating growth, potential frontloading by businesses and consumers ahead of possible policy changes might skew demand forecasts for later in the year. Therefore, experts recommend interpreting the index cautiously.
In the third quarter of 2024, world merchandise trade continued its recovery from a previous slump with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.3 percent. This aligns closely with the WTO's forecast from October predicting a growth rate of 2.7 percent for all of 2024. Despite stable global averages, regional variations were notable: European exports and imports underperformed expectations while Asian exports and North American imports exceeded them.
The component indices within the barometer show varied trends; export orders (101.0), electronic components (102.3), and raw materials (101.6) align with trends, whereas automotive products (105.5), container shipping (103.7), and air freight (102.7) are performing above trend levels to differing extents.
Given that export orders often serve as reliable predictors within these metrics, they should be monitored for any indications of an impending slowdown in trade activities.
Further information on these findings can be accessed through detailed reports available online.