On February 24, 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board concluded its annual discussions with the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). These discussions focused on common policies among member countries and their reform programs.
In 2023, CEMAC's economy experienced a slowdown, primarily due to a decline in hydrocarbon production. Real GDP growth decreased to 2.5 percent, while foreign exchange reserves accumulation slowed, leaving them below adequate levels. In 2024, economic activity picked up slightly with a real GDP growth of 3.2 percent, aided by increased hydrocarbon output. However, policy assurances regarding net foreign assets for mid-2024 were not met.
Regional authorities maintained a steady monetary policy stance despite challenges. The Central Bank (BEAC) kept its policy rate at 5 percent in September 2024 and continued liquidity injections to stabilize banking system conditions. BEAC also enforced foreign exchange regulations and worked with banks dependent on its refinancing to submit credible plans.
The outlook remains uncertain with potential risks including fiscal slippages, commodity price declines, tighter financial conditions, political uncertainty amid elections in 2025, inflation persistence, financial instability, slow structural reform progress, food insecurity, domestic conflicts, and climate disruptions.
Medium-term growth is expected to strengthen to 3.6 percent by 2029 due to a rebound in the non-oil sector and structural reforms aimed at improving governance and business climate. Fiscal consolidation efforts are anticipated across member states.
Executive Directors acknowledged the economic momentum loss due to reduced hydrocarbon production and non-oil growth slowdown. They emphasized the need for a well-calibrated macroeconomic policy mix and sustained reform efforts to enhance resilience and maintain stability.
Directors welcomed commitments made during the December 2024 Heads of State Summit to address imbalances and prioritize reforms for equitable adjustment burden sharing. They urged swift implementation of fiscal consolidation measures aligned with these commitments.
Monetary policy should remain tight until inflation aligns with regional convergence criteria. Liquidity operations should continue alongside efforts to reduce banking system fragmentation.
Financial stability preservation requires strong collective action from national and regional authorities focusing on COBAC's supervisory capacity strengthening and strict regulation enforcement.
Directors called for accelerated structural reforms in governance, regulation enhancement, human capital development, climate adaptation measures, regional trade improvements, and infrastructure development.
Directors noted that BEAC did not meet policy assurance targets on net foreign assets for June 2024 but supported corrective actions taken during December’s Heads of State meeting. New assurances were endorsed for March and June 2025 targets as crucial for Fund-supported programs' success with CEMAC members.