Zimbabwe is urged to strengthen its resilience against climate-related shocks, with a particular focus on agriculture, according to the Zimbabwe Economic Update (ZEU) released on January 31, 2025. The report, titled "Improving Resilience to Weather Shocks and Climate Change," suggests policy areas for investment that aim to protect livelihoods and ensure sustainable agricultural development.
Agriculture plays a vital role in Zimbabwe's economy, contributing 17% to GDP and 40% to exports. It also supplies 68% of raw materials to the manufacturing sector and employs 70% of the population. However, its dependence on rainfed systems and maize production makes it vulnerable to severe climate events such as droughts linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
The ENSO significantly impacts Zimbabwe’s climate through El Niño and La Niña phases. El Niño often brings above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall, leading to droughts, while La Niña can cause above-average rainfall resulting in floods.
Recent data shows that climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of El Niño events, heightening Zimbabwe's vulnerability to drought. The World Bank’s Zimbabwe Country Climate and Development Report (2024) noted an increase in drought frequency from once every ten growing seasons between 1902 and 1979, to once every four seasons between 1980 and 2011.
“This has made many Zimbabweans more vulnerable to variability in rainfall patterns. This growing trend highlights the urgent need for Zimbabwe to develop robust strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of these climate variations, and better insulate their negative impact on growth,” said Dominick Revell de Waal, World Bank Senior Economist and co-author of the ZEU.
Climate change could erode up to 12% of GDP annually if not addressed, whereas adaptation costs are less than 1% of GDP. Every dollar invested in early measures can save up to $16 in future costs. During the 2023/24 season, severe drought conditions due to El Niño led to a 60% decline in maize yield compared with the five-year average. Reduced rainfall combined with high temperatures caused widespread food insecurity and economic hardship.
The government's goal of boosting agricultural output to $12.5 billion is threatened by these challenges. Climate shocks disrupt GDP, trade balances, and fiscal stability. The recent El Niño-induced drought caused about $363 million in damage losses and led to a projected 3.2% drop in GDP while widening the fiscal deficit by 0.9%.
“To strengthen Zimbabwe’s resilience...a dual approach is essential,” said Easther Chigumira, World Bank Senior Agriculture Specialist and co-author of the report.
The ZEU recommends investments in two key areas: climate adaptation focusing on research services, irrigation, landscape management; and anticipatory actions enhancing early warning systems through improved social protection frameworks.