The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board has completed the sixth reviews under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Extended Fund Facility (EFF), along with the second review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) for Moldova. This conclusion allows for a disbursement of SDR 122.2 million, approximately $162.6 million, which will be used for budget support. Moldova's total disbursements under these ongoing program arrangements now reach about $810.2 million.
The IMF noted that "the economic recovery is taking hold with growth projected at 2.6 percent this year and 3 percent next year." Additionally, the fiscal deficit is expected to decline from 5.2 percent of GDP in 2023 to 4.4 percent in 2024 and further to 4.0 percent in 2025 due to stronger-than-expected revenues from wage and import growth alongside controlled spending.
However, there are significant uncertainties in the outlook, particularly related to geopolitical tensions such as the war in Ukraine and potential energy shocks. Conversely, progress on structural reforms, including those tied to the EU Growth Plan for Moldova and its EU accession path, could present positive risks.
While quantitative performance has been strong, implementation of structural reforms has been uneven according to IMF assessments. The Moldovan authorities have completed conditions related to financial inclusion, insurance sector improvements, state-owned enterprises reform, and submitted legal amendments aimed at enhancing the autonomy of the National Bank of Moldova (NBM). However, actions concerning the establishment of an Anti-Corruption Court (ACC) and staffing of the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (APO) remain pending.
Kenji Okamura, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair at IMF stated: "While economic recovery picked up in 2024 and is expected to continue in 2025, risks remain tilted to the downside." He emphasized that authorities should pursue prudent policies while fostering investment-friendly growth supported by EU accession processes.
Fiscal policy is advised to follow a gradual consolidation path aimed at creating space for addressing economic shocks while investing in growth-enhancing projects and protecting vulnerable groups. Inflationary pressures have lessened but cautious monetary policy remains necessary due to energy-related shocks.
The upcoming Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) will evaluate developments within Moldova's financial sector informing future reform agendas.
Continued efforts towards anti-corruption reforms are highlighted as essential for building trust within institutions and supporting socio-economic development in Moldova.
The IMF also urges accelerated implementation of RSF measures focusing on climate policy advancement as crucial steps toward sustainable long-term development goals.