Consumer confidence declines as major household purchase index falls

Banking & Financial Services
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Antony Strong Group Executive Strategy and Transformation | Australia and New Zealand Banking Group

Consumer confidence saw a decline last week, dropping 1.6 points to reach 83.9 points. The four-week moving average also experienced a decrease, falling by 0.7 points to settle at 85.9 points.

Inflation expectations for the week increased by 0.3 percentage point, reaching 4.8 percent, while the four-week moving average remained steady at the same figure.

Financial conditions showed mixed results with 'current financial conditions' over the past year rising by 0.6 points and 'future financial conditions' for the next twelve months decreasing by 0.5 points.

Confidence in the short-term economic outlook improved significantly with a rise of 2.2 points, whereas medium-term economic confidence eased slightly by 0.5 points.

The subindex measuring whether it is a good time to buy major household items fell sharply by 7.9 points.

"There are signs the upward trend in ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has stalled, with the series down 4.5 points from the two and a half year peak a fortnight ago," ANZ Economist Madeline Dunk commented.

Dunk noted that "last week, confidence fell 1.6 points, to a nine-week low, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) signalling it was more comfortable with the inflation outlook following its December meeting, opening the door for rate cuts early next year." She added that they expect "the RBA to begin easing rates in May 2025, but a February cut is possible."

She further explained that "the decline in confidence was driven by a 7.9 point fall in the ‘time to buy a major household item’ measure." This particular subindex has seen a significant drop of 10.6 points over two weeks after Black Friday sales concluded, which may indicate that stronger November spending could have been due to consumers advancing their end-of-year purchases.