An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team, led by Ms. Ran Bi, visited Doha from November 10 to 21, 2024, for the 2024 Article IV consultation discussions. The team will present a report to IMF management and the Executive Board, which is set to review it in January 2025.
Ms. Bi commented on Qatar's economic situation: "Following the post-World Cup growth moderation in 2023, Qatar’s economy has shown signs of a gradual rebound." She noted that real GDP growth fell from 4.2% in 2022 to 1.2% in 2023 due to reduced construction activities and slower services growth after the World Cup. However, tourism has improved significantly since then.
The forecast for real GDP growth in 2024-25 is about 2%, driven by public investment and benefits from an ongoing LNG expansion project alongside strong tourism performance. Over the medium term, average annual growth is expected to be around 4¾%, aided by increased LNG production and NDS3 reform implementation.
Ms. Bi stated that "headline inflation is likely to ease to 1 percent in 2024" with fiscal and current accounts projected to remain positive over the medium term. Risks are considered balanced.
In terms of fiscal policy, she mentioned that while some fiscal space was used in 2023 to support the economy, "continued fiscal discipline is expected for 2024." Plans include revenue diversification efforts such as introducing a value-added tax and improving spending efficiency.
The Qatar Central Bank (QCB) has aligned its monetary policy with the U.S. Federal Reserve due to its currency peg with the U.S. dollar. Ms. Bi praised QCB's progress in liquidity management but emphasized continued vigilance for banking sector stability.
To achieve Qatar’s vision of transitioning from a state-led model to one driven by knowledge and private sectors, Ms. Bi highlighted the need for enhancing human capital and economic complexity through reforms under NDS3.
She concluded by expressing gratitude towards Qatari authorities: “The staff team expresses its appreciation to the authorities for the productive discussions and for the arrangements to facilitate the visit.”