The incoming Trump administration is exploring a variety of policy initiatives, prompting discussions on how to analyze these measures. Instead of focusing on specific proposals, a framework is suggested for assessing the potential short-term economic impacts.
This framework considers three aspects: the extent of the economy affected by the proposal, whether the change is fundamentally different or just an extension of existing policies, and the durability of its impact. "How much of the economy does the proposal touch, both directly and indirectly?" is one key question raised.
High-profile proposals like tax cuts and tariffs may not have significant consequences compared to others such as immigration policies and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which could have more substantial short-term effects.
President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs are broad, affecting all imports into America. Retaliation from trading partners could impact U.S. exports. However, tariffs are not new; they have existed since before America's founding. "A tariff is just a tax designed to change consumer behavior," notes the analysis.
Debt-funded tax cuts might lead to higher budget deficits and inflation in the near term. The U.S. Federal Reserve can mitigate inflation with higher interest rates, allowing consumers and producers to adjust their behaviors accordingly.
Immigration policy changes could pose challenges if undocumented populations decrease significantly. Pew Research Center data shows past declines during low labor demand periods like the global financial crisis. With current unemployment around four percent, prioritizing immigration enforcement over labor supply is unusual.
Undocumented workers are concentrated in key sectors such as services, construction, maintenance, natural resources, production, transportation, material moving, managerial & professional roles, and technical sales administrative positions according to RBC Wealth Management and U.S. Census Bureau data.
The DOGE aims to increase government efficiency by achieving outcomes with fewer resources. If successful, it would be economically beneficial in both short- and long-term scenarios. However, public comments suggest possible cuts to government programs and employees instead of maintaining constant outcomes.
The Trump administration's policy mix might result in conflicting forces—shrinking government could limit growth but help with inflation while debt-funded tax cuts might boost economic activity.
Overall, investors are advised to use this framework when evaluating potential policy changes under President-elect Trump’s administration by considering their magnitude, novelty, and durability.