The World Trade Organization (WTO) has released a new report titled "Trading with Intelligence: How AI Shapes and is Shaped by International Trade." The document explores the potential impacts of artificial intelligence on international trade, highlighting its ability to reduce costs, transform service trade, and redefine comparative advantages for economies. It also examines the growing fragmentation in AI regulation, which could affect trade opportunities for smaller businesses.
In the foreword, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala states: “This report aims to stimulate a discussion on how the WTO can promote the development and deployment of AI and help mitigate its associated risks and looming concerns about regulatory fragmentation. In this respect, two guiding questions the report tries to address are: how can the WTO help ensure that the benefits of AI are broadly shared? How can the challenges that AI presents be addressed in a globally coordinated manner?”
The report suggests that AI could alleviate trade costs linked to logistics, supply chain management, and regulatory compliance. For example, it could automate customs processes and border controls while aiding in navigating complex regulations.
AI's potential to lower trade costs may level the playing field for developing economies and small businesses by helping them overcome barriers and access global markets. The report estimates that with universal AI adoption and high productivity growth until 2040, global real trade growth could rise by nearly 14 percentage points. Conversely, uneven adoption might result in just under 7 percentage points growth.
AI is expected to transform service trade patterns significantly, especially digitally delivered services. These services could see cumulative growth of almost 18 percentage points under optimistic scenarios.
However, there are warnings about an increasing divide between economies due to AI adoption rates. Data governance challenges also pose significant issues alongside ensuring trustworthy AI systems. Additionally, clarifying AI's relationship with intellectual property rights remains necessary.
The lack of coordination might lead to more fragmented regulations regarding AI use. Addressing these divides is crucial for leveraging technology's opportunities.
The WTO sees itself as a platform for negotiation and rule-making concerning AI's benefits and risks. It offers a multilateral framework aimed at promoting policy coherence related to AI governance aspects affecting trade.