A new World Bank report, "Viet Nam 2045: Trading Up in a Changing World – Pathways to a High-Income Future," examines how Viet Nam can enhance its role in global value chains to achieve high-income status by 2045. Over the past four decades, integration into global markets has driven Viet Nam's economic development, making it one of the most open economies worldwide. Currently, about half of the country's GDP and every second job rely on exports.
Viet Nam aims to become a modern, high-income economy by 2045, which necessitates sustaining an annual per capita GDP growth rate of approximately 6% over the next two decades. This target depends on advancing into higher value-added manufacturing and services through technology investments, skills development, and innovation. The country must navigate this transformation amid global uncertainty and shifts in international trade systems.
"To sustain rapid growth, Viet Nam will need to transition from labor-intensive, low value-added final assembly into higher value-added manufacturing and services," stated Manuela V. Ferro, World Bank Vice President for East Asia & Pacific. "In addition, amid global trade shifts and rising uncertainty, diversifying trade and investment partnerships will be essential for building resilience and ensuring long-term success."
The World Bank suggests a multipronged approach to boost productivity growth, attract private investment, and improve participation in global value chains. Recommended policies include deepening regional trade integration; connecting domestic enterprises with global supply chains; promoting skill- and technology-intensive manufacturing alongside high-value-added services; and transitioning to low-carbon, climate-resilient production.
The findings were presented at a workshop with Vietnamese policymakers in Hanoi on November 20. Dr. Nguyen Xuan Thang, Politburo member and president of the Ho Chi Minh National Academy of Politics co-chaired the event with Manuela V. Ferro.
The report was developed with financial backing from the Australian Government through the Australia–World Bank Strategic Partnership (ABP2).