The Yemen Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) presents a comprehensive analysis of the challenges and opportunities posed by climate change in Yemen. It uses a scenario-based approach to outline three potential pathways: "Peace and Prosperity," "Status Quo," and "Escalation and Intensification." These scenarios reflect varying levels of fragility and capacity for climate action, highlighting the need for adaptive strategies that prioritize targeted interventions.
Yemen faces a complex interplay of development, conflict, and climate change. The ongoing conflict has created a humanitarian crisis affecting about 80% of households, limiting access to basic services. Climate change exacerbates these issues by intensifying water scarcity and food insecurity. Addressing these intertwined challenges requires integrating development needs with climate action.
The report warns that Yemen's GDP could decline by an average of 3.9% annually by 2040 under pessimistic climate scenarios due to decreased agricultural productivity and infrastructure damage. Conversely, optimistic scenarios with increased precipitation could lead to GDP growth of 1.5%. However, without proper policies and investments in adaptation, frequent intense precipitation coupled with longer dry periods pose significant challenges.
Approximately half of Yemen's population is exposed to significant climate hazards such as extreme heat, drought, or flooding. These hazards disproportionately affect marginalized communities, increasing food insecurity and poverty. A comprehensive understanding of these vulnerabilities is essential for developing targeted interventions that build adaptive capacity.
Despite these challenges, potential increases in precipitation offer opportunities for reducing the gap between supply and demand. Investments in water management, soil conservation, and climate-smart agriculture could increase yields by up to 13.5% under optimistic scenarios from 2041 to 2050.
The fisheries sector faces threats from rising sea temperatures and altered marine ecosystems, potentially leading to a decline of up to 23% in fish stocks. Sustainable fishing practices and effective coastal management are crucial for protecting livelihoods.
Climate-related disasters like flash floods pose risks to urban areas and infrastructure. Without robust disaster risk management strategies, Yemen could face economic shocks. Effective planning, investment in resilient infrastructure, and community preparedness initiatives are critical.
Yemen has significant potential for renewable energy development as part of a climate-sensitive recovery strategy. Investments in renewable energy infrastructure can provide reliable electricity for essential services while supporting economic development.
Climate change also exacerbates health challenges in Yemen, potentially costing over US$5 billion in excess health costs by 2050. Integrating climate resilience into public health planning is necessary.
Accessing climate finance remains challenging due to low institutional capacity and high perceived risks. Strengthening the private sector is essential for mobilizing funding through innovative financing mechanisms.
A whole-of-society approach is needed to address the multifaceted challenges of development, conflict, and climate change effectively. Engaging diverse stakeholders will enhance the effectiveness of climate actions.
The CCDR outlines five higher-level objectives: developing spatially targeted approaches to build resilience; improving water security; promoting disaster risk management centered around renewable energy; fostering adaptive human development; scaling up innovative climate finance; empowering the private sector through people-centered approaches.