Thailand is facing significant climate change challenges, prompting the introduction of a new model to bolster its green agenda. The World Bank has unveiled the BCG+ model, building on Thailand's Bio-Circular-Green (BCG) model launched in 2021. This initiative aims to address rising climate threats such as sea level rise, extreme weather, and biodiversity loss.
The agriculture and fishing sectors in Thailand are particularly vulnerable to these changes. The country's local fishing and shrimp farming industries are at risk, with potential production losses estimated between $2.9 billion and $5.4 billion for agriculture and up to $26.2 billion for fishing. "Heat stress will severely impact ocean ecosystems," leading to significant losses across all climate scenarios.
By 2050, outdoor labor sectors like agriculture and construction could see productivity losses double due to climate change impacts. Indoor labor will be less affected but may incur annual costs of $11 billion to $17 billion for cooling systems by mid-century.
Natural resource depletion further complicates Thailand's situation, with forest cover declining by 12% since 2000. Without intervention, GDP losses could reach up to $553 billion by 2050. However, strategic policies might reduce these losses by 68%, potentially increasing cumulative wealth by $54 billion through reforestation efforts.
Sea-level rise poses another economic threat, with flood damage projected to lower GDP by four percentage points in a major flood event by 2030. Coastal erosion continues at an estimated two square kilometers per year.
To mitigate these risks, comprehensive adaptation strategies are essential alongside public-private partnerships. Emphasizing resilience against flooding through early warning systems and climate-resilient infrastructure is critical for minimizing future economic impacts.
Reducing carbon emissions remains a challenge amid urbanization and fossil fuel reliance. Key strategies include investing in renewable energy and clean technologies while promoting electric vehicles and carbon pricing initiatives.
Transitioning towards a circular economy could lead to a one percent increase in GDP by 2030 along with creating approximately 160,000 jobs through reduced plastic consumption and increased recycling efforts.