The Tajikistan Country Climate and Development Report highlights the pressing need for Tajikistan to address climate change impacts such as droughts, floods, and air pollution. The report warns of potential severe economic consequences if action is not taken, predicting a 5-6% reduction in real GDP by 2050 due to climate-related damages.
The World Bank Group's report outlines the necessity for Tajikistan to implement structural reforms aimed at greening its economy. These reforms should focus on opening markets, mobilizing private investment, and improving governance in state-owned enterprises. It emphasizes the importance of strengthening education, healthcare, and social protection systems to build human capital.
The report proposes five policy packages to enhance resilience against climate change and accelerate low-carbon development. These include strengthening institutions for better climate adaptation, implementing inclusive climate strategies, mobilizing climate finance, reinforcing adaptation in the water-energy-food nexus, and accelerating low-carbon development through investments in hydropower and solar energy.
Tajikistan could gain significantly from these policies by reducing air pollution, improving water and energy security, enhancing connectivity, restoring degraded lands with nature-based solutions, achieving near net-zero emissions in power and buildings by 2040, and boosting GDP by 6% by 2050 through diversification and increased exports.
To implement this agenda successfully, an estimated $17 billion will be needed on top of $79 billion already planned for government reforms from 2025–2050. The private sector is expected to play a crucial role in financing these initiatives alongside foreign investments and support from international financial organizations.
"Climate change-related damages to infrastructure, livestock productivity, and agriculture could reduce real GDP by 5-6% by 2050."
"The annual average costs of land degradation in Tajikistan are estimated at nearly $325 million."
"Air pollution already accounts for 84 deaths per 100,000 residents—the second highest in Central Asia—that would only worsen without investment and policy reform."
"Climate impacts could push an additional 100,000 people into poverty."
"Reduced costly air pollution road accidents"