Accelerated decarbonization efforts in Poland could drive economic growth, enhance competitiveness, and mitigate air pollution impacts, according to the World Bank Group's newly released Poland Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR). As the ninth largest coal user globally, Poland faces significant risks from its heavy reliance on coal for power and industry. The nation experiences an estimated 40,000 premature deaths annually due to air pollution, with increasing pollution-related deaths between 2015 and 2020. Additionally, extreme droughts result in losses of approximately $1.4 billion yearly.
The report suggests that reaching net zero emissions by 2050 could yield a cumulative GDP gain of four percent while improving health outcomes by reducing air pollution, equivalent to a 1.4% GDP increase over the same period. Ary Naïm, World Bank Group Country Manager for Poland, stated: "Poland’s prospects of successfully navigating global decarbonization trends are bright. The country’s strong manufacturing capabilities and relatively high manufacturing complexity position it well to attract a new wave of investment and expand into growing or new low-carbon lines of production."
Achieving these goals requires around $450 billion in investments by 2050. With less than half potentially covered by domestic and EU resources, private capital mobilization is essential. This involves enhancing capital markets to bridge financing gaps and fostering institutional investor interest in environmental issues.
A comprehensive energy system transformation is vital for net zero emissions by mid-century. This includes removing barriers to renewable energy expansion and strengthening transmission infrastructure while utilizing natural gas as a transitional resource. Energy efficiency measures could cut demand by a quarter compared to 2019 levels.
Decarbonization is expected to create about 300,000 jobs in green sectors such as renewables and digitalization; however, impacts will differ across regions and workers. Social protection programs are necessary for mine workers and related sectors during this transition.
The CCDRs serve as diagnostic reports examining climate change-development links, aiming to guide countries toward impactful low-carbon transitions while meeting broader development objectives.