The global economy continues to show promising prospects despite the challenges posed by significant monetary policy tightening, according to Helge Pedersen, Nordea Group Chief Economist. Inflation has seen a sharp decline, leading to expectations that central banks may begin reducing interest rates this year. This development raises the possibility of achieving a soft landing for the global economy, although uncertainty remains high.
In the Nordic region, economies are experiencing the impact of higher interest rates and weaker global demand. Denmark and Sweden have entered technical recessions, with Finland likely to follow. Meanwhile, economic activity in Norway has leveled off. However, an improved outlook is anticipated in the latter half of the year as interest rates decrease and consumer purchasing power strengthens.
Denmark's economy slipped into a technical recession in 2023 following several years of robust growth. Last year saw a decade-high number of bankruptcies, with households increasingly affected by rising interest rates. The Danish economy is expected to make renewed progress by mid-2024 as interest rates decline.
Similarly, Finland's economy is on a path toward recession due to higher interest rates affecting private consumption, construction, and exports during the first half of 2024. A recovery is projected for the second half as lower interest rates enhance consumer purchasing power.
Norway's economic activity has stabilized but shows signs of improvement ahead. Interest rates have peaked and are expected to gradually decrease, enhancing household purchasing power over time. This could lead to increased housing prices after summer and potentially strengthen the Norwegian krone (NOK) in the longer term.
Sweden anticipates weak economic growth in the short term as inflation normalizes and interest rate cuts approach. These factors should mitigate the risk of a deep recession; however, interest rates will remain above pre-pandemic levels necessitating adjustments from households and businesses regarding funding costs.
Nordea Markets provided GDP growth forecasts: globally at 2.9% for both 2023 and 2024; for Nordic countries at 0.2% in 2023 improving slightly to 0.1% in 2024; Denmark's growth at 0.7% for 2023 rising to 1% in 2024; Finland experiencing contraction with -0.5% in 2023 worsening to -1% before recovering in subsequent years; Norway maintaining steady growth around approximately one percent annually through this period while Swedish projections indicate contraction followed by recovery thereafter.