Falling property prices in major cities have shortened the time required to save for a deposit for the first time in two years, according to ANZ's latest data. The ANZ CoreLogic Housing Affordability report indicates that since March, the duration needed for a median-income household to save a 20% deposit has decreased by about three months in Sydney and Melbourne, now standing at 13.7 years and 11.1 years respectively.
Despite this reduction, higher living costs may impede prospective buyers from saving effectively. Eliza Owen, CoreLogic’s Head of Australian Research, highlighted challenges faced by renters: "Renters in particular are facing persistent challenges in attaining affordable and secure housing as rents increased by 9.8 per cent nationally over the past year, the fastest rate on record," Ms. Owen stated.
The report also reveals that the income portion required to service rents has reached unprecedented levels in regional Australia, with 34% of income necessary for rent on a new lease compared to 28.4% across combined capital city markets. Additionally, the national portion of income needed to service a new mortgage rose to 44% in June—the highest since June 2011—from 33% in September 2020.
In regional areas, the deposit hurdle is nearly aligned with capital cities; it takes four months less for median earners there to accumulate a deposit—10.7 years compared to 11.1 years in urban centers—the closest these figures have been since June 2011.
ANZ Senior Economist Felicity Emmett noted that several factors could protect against further interest rate hikes despite rising mortgage costs: “Households are in good shape to absorb further rate rises as people have been saving more. Wages have increased and many recent borrowers remain on low, fixed-rate mortgages."
Emmett explained that mortgage serviceability assessment buffers mean those who secured home loans recently should withstand rate increases up to three percentage points above their initial variable rates. Furthermore, she anticipates improved mortgage serviceability by 2024 as "we expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut the cash rate by 50 basis points by the end of that year."