Consumer confidence declines amid rising inflation expectations

Banking & Financial Services
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Elisa Clements Group Executive Talent and Culture | Australia and New Zealand Banking Group

Consumer confidence has shown a decline, decreasing by 1.8 points last week to reach 85.9. This drop was observed across most mainland states, including New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and Western Australia. In contrast, South Australia experienced an increase in consumer confidence.

Weekly inflation expectations rose by 0.3 percentage points to 5.7%, while the moving average for the last four releases decreased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 5.5%.

Four out of five subindices related to consumer confidence recorded losses during this period. The 'current financial conditions' index fell by 2.5 points, marking its first decline since early December. Similarly, 'future financial conditions' dropped by 2.3 points but remained above the neutral level of 100.

In contrast to these trends, 'current economic conditions' increased by 1.8 points; however, 'future economic conditions' saw a decrease of 1.9 points.

The index measuring whether it is a good time to buy major household items also declined significantly by 4.1 points.

"Consumer confidence softened by 1.8pts to 85.9 last week, representing the first drop in confidence in 2023 so far," said ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell.

Timbrell further noted that "consumer confidence regarding current and future finances fell a little, though future financial conditions are still in positive territory."

She added that "sentiment about current economic conditions improved but consumers’ five-year view outlook on the economy softened." Household inflation expectations have risen "0.3ppt to 5.7% but remained below the inflation expectations of late 2022."

Timbrell also mentioned potential challenges ahead: "Media coverage of the inflation data and the first RBA meeting of 2023, which we expect to result in a cash rate hike, could both be headwinds for confidence in coming weeks."