Despite signs of a fragile economic recovery, Sub-Saharan Africa remains in "low gear," with a large youth population at risk of being left behind. According to the latest edition of Africa's Pulse, the World Bank’s regional economic update released on October 14, two factors are critical for inclusive growth: stabilizing economies and transforming education to equip the region’s workforce with foundational skills and market-relevant expertise.
The report, now in its 30th edition and themed Transforming Education for Inclusive Growth, projects that economic activity in the region will grow by 3% in 2024 from a low of 2.4% in 2023. This growth is driven primarily by private consumption and investment. Inflation is expected to decrease from 7.1% in 2023 to 4.8% in 2024 due to tighter monetary and fiscal policies, more stable currencies, and fewer supply chain disruptions.
However, this recovery is insufficient to lift millions out of poverty. Growth per capita remains sluggish at just 0.5% in 2024 compared to an average of 2.4% between 2000 and 2014. Challenges such as conflict, climate change, and high debt service costs are undermining progress. In 2024, about 34% of government revenues across the region will be spent on debt servicing, leaving little room for productive investments.
“African governments are making strides to stabilize their finances and close budget gaps,” said Andrew Dabalen, World Bank Chief Economist for the Africa Region. “But high debt burdens are limiting investments in critical areas like education, health and infrastructure, which are essential for long-term inclusive growth.”
Africa’s working-age population is expanding faster than any other region due to progress in child survival over the last two decades. Yet Sub-Saharan Africa spends less on education per capita than any other region. To achieve universal education by 2030, Africa’s Pulse estimates that education systems would need to absorb about 170 million more children and adolescents—requiring an estimated nine million new classrooms and eleven million new teachers.
This challenge is significant but not insurmountable; currently, there are already substantial improvements: approximately 270 million children are enrolled in primary and secondary schools today with improved primary school completion rates since 2000.
“Looking ahead," said Dabalen,"Africa’s youth will need to be well educated and appropriately skilled to access better jobs and take advantage of new digital and green economy opportunities.” He emphasized that "evidence-based planning" along with "smart spending" will be crucial for expanding access while improving learning outcomes.
Currently only seven out of ten children have no access to pre-primary education within Sub-Saharan Africa; additionally fewer than one-and-a-half percent aged fifteen through twenty-four enroll into vocational training compared against ten percent seen among high-income countries globally—a gap needing closure if unlocking economic potential sustainably becomes possible via inclusive growth initiatives supported alongside entrepreneurship support structures allowing small businesses expansion attracting larger firms thus ensuring skilled graduates meaningful employment opportunities upon entering workforce environments seeking advancement prospects therein.