In Niger, 2023 was marked by a severe political crisis that triggered regional commercial and financial sanctions and disrupted external financing. The sanctions lasted seven months, and an estimated 7.5% of GDP in external financing was not disbursed in 2023 due to disruptions in international development assistance. The report estimates that the crisis significantly reduced GDP growth to 2.0% in 2023 (-1.7% per capita), compared to 6.9% prior to the crisis.
The fact that GDP growth remained positive at 2.0% in 2023 despite considerable constraints demonstrates resilience, stemming from:
- The country’s economic characteristics such as a high level of informal trade (less affected by sanctions) and being oil-producing with a domestic refinery.
- Measures taken by the authorities on budget management to ensure the continuation of public-sector salary payments and ramping up local electricity production in response to the cut-off of electricity imports from Nigeria.
While overall GDP per capita contracted by 1.7%, agricultural GDP per capita expanded marginally by 0.12%, leading the extreme poverty rate to remain unchanged in 2023 at 48.4% (using the national poverty line), despite an increase in food prices in the second half of the year.
With sanctions lifted and access to financing gradually restored, growth could recover to 5.7% (1.8% per capita) in 2024 and average 6.5% in 2025-26. The rebound would be driven by large-scale oil exports, while non-oil industry and service sectors, which accumulated heavy losses in 2023, face a difficult recovery. However, the outlook remains subject to uncertainty around regional dynamics and significant downside risks, including deterioration in security situations, terms of trade shocks, climatic shocks, difficult financing conditions, sustained trade disputes with Benin, and delays in oil exports.
Against this heightened uncertainty, raising Niger’s growth potential is critical through investing natural capital from oil into human capital, notably education. The report delves into improving access to quality education costs.
The report notes that despite recent improvements in access to public education, more than half of children between ages seven and sixteen are estimated out of school due partly to limited poor school infrastructure and insecurity issues: "In 2022 approximately thirty-six percent of the country's eighty-one thousand nine hundred forty-seven primary and secondary classrooms were classified as 'Classe Paillote' or Straw Hut Classroom."
Demographic pressures will make increasing access even more challenging: "If net enrollment rate remains constant at fifty-seven point seven percent (twenty twenty-one), new students enrolled each year are projected increasing from one hundred two thousand three hundred seventy (twenty twenty-four) peaking one hundred thirty-three thousand five hundred eleven (twenty forty-five)."
To address classroom needs: "Government approved 'Zéro classes paillotte' program aims replacing thirty-six thousand CPs better classrooms," part phased replacement announced Sector Education Plan twenty-twenty underway along plans training hiring qualified teachers integrating contract teachers civil service."
However: "Current government’s program still leaves large share children out school comprehensive policy agenda improving enrolment rates estimated cost about one point two percent GDP annually addition current spending."
Currently: "Niger’s spending primary secondary education lower average structural aspirational regional peers latest available data." By spending additional funds annually: "Total government spending rise above average comparator countries."
Several ways exist for financing additional educational spending without jeopardizing fiscal sustainability:
- Improving efficiency within current educational expenditure.
- Utilizing expected increases government oil revenues post-large-scale production exports projected rise five percent GDP twenty-thirty currently less one percent.
- International development partners providing financial technical assistance supporting access quality education Niger.
The cost of doing nothing is significant according some estimates opportunity cost out-of-school children likely ranges five point four eighteen point two percent Mali four point one seventeen Burkina Faso eight point three fourteen point one Cote d’Ivoire." Moreover lack educational opportunities growing young population negatively impact security situation country."