The World Bank has released two reports detailing the worsening economic situation in Syria and the significant decline in household welfare. The "Syria Economic Monitor Spring 2024: Conflict, Crises and the Collapse of Household Welfare" examines Syria's macroeconomic policy within the context of ongoing conflict and regional instability. The report includes findings from "The Welfare of Syrian Households after a Decade of Conflict," which assesses welfare changes from the pre-conflict period (2000-2010) to mid-2022.
Economic indicators reflect Syria’s deteriorating condition. Nighttime light emissions, a proxy for economic activity, fell by 1.2% year-on-year in 2023, particularly along western borders due to weakened trade. Oil production saw a 5.5% decline, partly due to earthquake and conflict-related infrastructure damage. Although agriculture rebounded slightly with better weather conditions in 2023, massive displacement and damaged infrastructure continued to depress crop yields.
Syria’s reliance on food imports has intensified since the conflict began. In 2023, the Syrian pound depreciated by 141% against the US dollar while consumer price inflation rose by an estimated 93%, exacerbated by subsidy cuts. Fiscal revenues have declined as economic activity slowed, prompting further reductions in government spending and subsidies.
"Syria has experienced multiple overlapping shocks in 2023 with the February earthquakes and the spillover from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East," said Jean-Christophe Carret, World Bank Middle East Country Director. "More than a decade into the deadliest conflict of this century, Syria’s capacity to absorb external economic shocks has been severely impaired particularly with the recent decline in aid flows and challenging access to humanitarian assistance and heightened geopolitical regional tensions."
The Spring 2024 Syria Economic Monitor forecasts that real GDP will contract by another 1.5% in 2024 following a 1.2% decline in 2023. Rising prices are expected to continue eroding purchasing power, keeping private consumption subdued. Private investment is anticipated to remain weak amid security volatility and policy uncertainty.
The Special Focus section highlights that as of 2022, poverty affected 69% of Syrians — about 14.5 million people — with extreme poverty affecting over one-quarter of the population due to compounded crises including earthquakes, financial crises abroad, COVID-19 impacts, and regional conflicts like Ukraine's war.
Poverty is notably severe in certain areas; over half of those living in extreme poverty reside in Aleppo, Hama, and Deir-ez-Zor governorates. Female-headed households and internally displaced persons face higher risks of poverty.
International remittances have played a crucial role for many households, correlating with significant reductions in both general poverty (8 percentage points) and extreme poverty (12 percentage points).