U.S. policy makers woke up to a new reality when citizens in Montana spotted what is now known to be a Chinese spy balloon drifting over their state. The Biden Administration shot down and recovered the balloon, and has yet to say whether others it shot down are part of the same operation.
Beijing officials displayed an uncharacteristic response. Their initial expressions of regret turned to antagonistic claims that the U.S. reaction was overblown. This was followed days later by a new claim that the U.S. has supposedly flown similar balloons over China.
China’s approach is to pretend its incursion is a big deal only because it was exposed. Perhaps China’s claim about U.S. balloons over Chinese territory is true, and perhaps it is not. Either way, Chinese leaders made a mistake that may be studied for years when the history is written about what is emerging as a new era in US-China relations.
China's mistake—intruding on U.S. territory with a crude instrument that could be discovered by citizens in the heartland—will accelerate the shifting American culture that once sought only friendship with its largest global rival.
Research has shown that the majority of Americans value the relationship with China, want the best for its people, and especially want to avoid confrontation. This American tendency to want to see the best in others—sometimes despite the facts—is eroding.
Americans now have questions. For example, why would China fly spy balloons over the U.S. that are visible from the ground—which no one will ever accept—when it already flies spy satellites that cannot be seen and are generally accepted? Is it because they want to provoke America? Or is it because Xi Jinping, who rules over his party’s military like few leaders in modern history, does not have control over whichever division of his government thought floating balloons over its biggest global foe was wise?
Beijing should be concerned that Americans are getting to know the extent of Chinese infiltration. American consumers were already weighing the risk of allowing TikTok on their electronic devices, and of allowing Chinese cultural initiatives in U.S. universities. They were also asking why China is allowed to buy major U.S. food processors, like Smithfield Foods, which exports one-third of every hog raised on U.S. farms to feed Chinese citizens.
Now, they are asking why China should be allowed to purchase valuable land in their communities, and why U.S. universities should be allowed to accept funding and students from China so they can peek in on research and copy valuable technology. They are also questioning the appropriateness of Chinese “police stations” that are allowed to operate in major U.S. cities.
China’s balloon means that the new Select Committee on China in the U.S. House of Representatives will be able to advance bolder policies, made easier by a more alert U.S. population that is increasingly skeptical of Beijing's intentions.
China's reckoning, unlikely just a few years ago, will come in the form of a simple but larger question: Why should the U.S. extend any privilege to China that China does not extend to the U.S.?
This new framing strips away every defense China relied upon in the past. If China claims that its purchases of U.S. lands and companies are good for the economic benefit of both countries, why won’t it let U.S. citizens buy similar lands in China, or let U.S. government-backed entities buy Chinese companies? If cross-cultural influence in colleges is good for both sides, why is American influence in Chinese universities strictly forbidden?
American determination to remain friends with China will endure as long as hostilities do not break out. But American citizens are now more open to the idea that China seeks benefits from its relationship with the U.S. that it has no intention to provide to the U.S. in return.
Chinese leaders will rue the day it went too far by poking at the American people. It will now face a new era, where "Reciprocal Privilege” emerges as U.S. doctrine that will guide relations between the nations for years to come.