For the first time in 60 years, China has recorded a decline in its population, but the drop won't be a reason for concern unless the Chinese government makes it one, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. (CFR)
According to a blog post by Carl Minzner, a senior fellow for the China Studies Program at the CFR, the Chinese government recently announced that 2022 marked the first drop in its total population in six decades, since the famine of Mao's Great Leap Forward in the 1960s. Current United Nations' estimates show China’s total population could fall by 100 million to 200 million by 2050, the post read.
To reverse the trend, China must positively respond by making several policy changes. First, Minzner said, the government must adjust its policies to work within its aging population, such as raising current retirement ages (55 for women and 60 for men) to help meet financial pressures. With the population getting older and fewer eligible workers available to meet demand, many nations have solved the problem by increasing foreign labor flows.
Also, the Chinese have to resist adopting shortsighted policies that may be harmful in the long-term, as placing too big an emphasis on birth rates and alienating women.
There are "serious risks that Beijing’s new-found interest in ramping up births and marriages will result in repressive and poorly designed state policies that severely harm the rights of Chinese women, undermine gender relations, and drive fertility rates even lower," Minzner wrote.
Many other nations have also faced population declines in recent years, such as Japan, which saw its population peak in 2008, but has been declining since. Taiwan and South Korea both began facing declines in 2020 and 2021.
Minzner is a professor at Fordham Law School, where he specializes in Chinese politics and law, according to CFR. The council is an independent, nonpartisan think tank dedicated to "being a resource for citizens in order to help them better understand the world and the foreign policy choices facing the United States and other countries," according to its website.