Foreign Ministry spokesperson of the People’s Republic of China Hua Chunying has said that China’s approach to mitigating COVID-19 has been working, but recent reports argue that the zero-COVID policy, as well as the country’s low birth rate, could be detrimental to the economic growth of the nation.
"All anti-epidemic measures come at a price, but it’s all worth it so long as lives are protected. 'Dynamic zero-COVID policy' suits China's realities and it indeed works,” tweeted Chunying in April.
A recent report from The Dispatch said that President Xi Jinping’s commitment to a zero-COVID policy is hurting the Chinese economy and will continue to do so. Economists are predicting that the Chinese economy will increase by only 2% this year. The U.S. economy is forecasted for a 2.8% increase, making this the first time since 1976 the U.S. has had higher economic growth than China. Some Chinese officials like Premier Li Keqiang are also warning of the negative effects of the zero-COVID policy.
Other contributing factors include China’s one-child policy, the Dispatch report said. This became a two-child policy in 2016 and a three-child policy in 2021, but birth rates in China continue to decline. China has a total fertility rate of between 1.1 and 1.3 births per woman. The labor force is also aging, and this is straining the supply side of the economy. As the population shrinks, the demand side will be constrained as well.
The Financial Times recently reported that China seems to be doubling down on its zero-COVID strategy as it has built hundreds of thousands of permanent testing facilities. The report said that experts predict China will continue to perform mass-testing and quarantines until through at least 2023.
Senior fellow for the Global Health at the Council for Foreign Relations Yanzhong Huang said this approach to mitigate COVID demonstrates China’s willingness to proceed “despite this growing social, economic cost associated with this approach.”
The Financial Times report added that, as of April, China had created, or was building, 400 hospitals with a capacity of at least 560,000 beds, according to information by National Health Commission officials. There are reportedly new hospitals and quarantine sites being set up in all 31 of the country’s provinces and regions in case of a surge of COVID-19 cases.